EUR has tried to realize bullish background that it had until the moment of Powell's speech. As he has encouraged all investors with positivity of US economy forecast and interest rates, dollar has risen. 

Of course it perfectly matches to our long-term view, as on EUR as on GBP but it totally chances picture on daily/intraday charts. 

On daily, market stands with few pips from erasing of the grabber and EUR has formed reversal session yesterday. In fact, this was second attempt to break triangle and it has failed. It means that chances on drop back to 1.15 lows and MPS1 have
increased significantly:





Minor 4H xop we could use to identify retracement. Still this will be Agreement area with major 5/8 fib support and market could show minor upside retracement. So, if you're watching for taking short position - this could be a chance. But do not expect too deep retracement - either major 3/8 or even smaller:

The swing target for deeper retracement will be aimed at 1.1550+/-.




EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

 
 Pivot: 1.1675
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.1675 with targets at 1.1615 & 1.1600 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.1675 look for further upside with 1.1700 & 1.1725 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI shows downside momentum.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.1725
1.1700
1.1675
1.1641 Last
1.1615
1.1600
1.1575
 
GBP/USD Intraday: under pressure.

 
 Pivot: 1.3155
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.3155 with targets at 1.3065 & 1.3030 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.3155 look for further upside with 1.3185 & 1.3220 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3220
1.3185
1.3155
1.3107 Last
1.3065
1.3030
1.2990
 
USD/JPY Intraday: further advance.

 
 Pivot: 112.60
 
Our preference: long positions above 112.60 with targets at 113.30 & 113.65 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 112.60 look for further downside with 112.20 & 112.00 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
 
Supports and resistances:
114.00
113.65
113.30
112.99 Last
112.60
112.20
112.00
 
USD/CAD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

 
 Pivot: 1.3170
 
Our preference: long positions above 1.3170 with targets at 1.3220 & 1.3240 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1.3170 look for further downside with 1.3140 & 1.3105 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3270
1.3240
1.3220
1.3202 Last
1.3170
1.3140
1.3105
 
Gold spot Intraday: the downside prevails.

 
 Pivot: 1229.00
 
Our preference: short positions below 1229.00 with targets at 1220.00 & 1217.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1229.00 look for further upside with 1234.50 & 1237.50 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI has broken down its 30 level.
 
Supports and resistances:
1237.50
1234.50
1229.00
1224.53 Last
1220.00
1217.00
1214.00
 
Crude Oil(WTI) (Q18) Intraday: capped by a negative trend line.

 
 Pivot: 68.45
 
Our preference: short positions below 68.45 with targets at 67.05 & 66.40 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 68.45 look for further upside with 69.25 & 69.95 as targets.
 
Comment: as long as the resistance at 68.45 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 67.05 remains high.
 
Supports and resistances:
69.95
69.25
68.45
67.67 Last
67.05
66.40
65.85
 

 
EUR/USD Intraday: towards 1.1760.

 
 Pivot: 1.1700
 
Our preference: long positions above 1.1700 with targets at 1.1760 & 1.1790 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1.1700 look for further downside with 1.1675 & 1.1655 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.1820
1.1790
1.1760
1.1731 Last
1.1700
1.1675
1.1655
 
GBP/USD MT: break of a ST rising trend line support.

 
 Pivot: 1.3800
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.3800 with targets at 1.2780 & 1.2350 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.3800 look for further upside with 1.4560 & 1.5000 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI shows downside momentum. The pair has broken below a rising trend line in place since January 2017 and remains under pressure.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.5000
1.4560
1.3800
1.3255 Last
1.2780
1.2350
1.1950
 
USD/JPY Intraday: intraday support around 112.20.

 
 Pivot: 112.20
 
Our preference: long positions above 112.20 with targets at 112.55 & 112.80 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 112.20 look for further downside with 111.90 & 111.60 as targets.
 
Comment: technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
 
Supports and resistances:
113.00
112.80
112.55
112.33 Last
112.20
111.90
111.60
 
USD/CAD Intraday: consolidation.

 
 Pivot: 1.3160
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.3160 with targets at 1.3095 & 1.3060 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.3160 look for further upside with 1.3180 & 1.3210 as targets.
 
Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.3160 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3095 remains high.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3210
1.3180
1.3160
1.3120 Last
1.3095
1.3060
1.3020
 
Gold spot Intraday: under pressure.

 
 Pivot: 1243.50
 
Our preference: short positions below 1243.50 with targets at 1238.00 & 1236.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1243.50 look for further upside with 1246.00 & 1248.50 as targets.
 
Comment: as long as 1243.50 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
 
Supports and resistances:
1248.50
1246.00
1243.50
1241.40 Last
1238.00
1236.00
1233.00
 
Crude Oil(WTI) (Q18) Intraday: key resistance at 69.25.

 
 Pivot: 69.25
 
Our preference: short positions below 69.25 with targets at 67.55 & 66.65 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 69.25 look for further upside with 69.95 & 70.75 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum. The prices are trading around the 20-period moving average.
 
Supports and resistances:
70.75
69.95
69.25
68.07 Last
67.55
66.65
65.75

 
 
 
Понедельник, 16 июля 2018 08:18

Fx Majors Intraday Technical Overview - Monday

Автор
EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

 
 Pivot: 1.1670
 
Our preference: long positions above 1.1670 with targets at 1.1720 & 1.1740 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1.1670 look for further downside with 1.1655 & 1.1640 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.1760
1.1740
1.1720
1.1690 Last
1.1670
1.1655
1.1640
 
GBP/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

 
 Pivot: 1.3190
 
Our preference: long positions above 1.3190 with targets at 1.3290 & 1.3325 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1.3190 look for further downside with 1.3150 & 1.3115 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3365
1.3325
1.3290
1.3232 Last
1.3190
1.3150
1.3115
 
USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.

 
 Pivot: 112.25
 
Our preference: long positions above 112.25 with targets at 112.80 & 113.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 112.25 look for further downside with 111.90 & 111.60 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
 
Supports and resistances:
113.35
113.00
112.80
112.48 Last
112.25
111.90
111.60

USD/CAD Intraday: consolidation.

 
 Pivot: 1.3175
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.3175 with targets at 1.3120 & 1.3095 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.3175 look for further upside with 1.3195 & 1.3220 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3220
1.3195
1.3175
1.3145 Last
1.3120
1.3095
1.3060 
 
Gold spot Intraday: rebound in sight.

 
 Pivot: 1239.50
 
Our preference: long positions above 1239.50 with targets at 1246.00 & 1248.50 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1239.50 look for further downside with 1236.00 & 1233.00 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI broke above a bearish trend line.
 
Supports and resistances:
1251.00
1248.50
1246.00
1243.50 Last
1239.50
1236.00
1233.00
 
Crude Oil(WTI) (Q18) Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

 
 Pivot: 70.30
 
Our preference: long positions above 70.30 with targets at 71.20 & 71.65 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 70.30 look for further downside with 69.85 & 69.20 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
 
Supports and resistances:
72.55
71.65
71.20
70.58 Last
70.30
69.85
69.20

 
EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.
 

 Pivot: 1.1680
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.1680 with targets at 1.1640 & 1.1625 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.1680 look for further upside with 1.1695 & 1.1725 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI advocates for further decline.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.1725
1.1695
1.1680
1.1657 Last
1.1640
1.1625
1.1610
 
GBP/USD Intraday: capped by a negative trend line.

 
 Pivot: 1.3205
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.3205 with targets at 1.3150 & 1.3120 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.3205 look for further upside with 1.3225 & 1.3255 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI advocates for further decline.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3255
1.3225
1.3205
1.3168 Last
1.3150
1.3120
1.3100
 
USD/JPY Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

 
 Pivot: 112.35
 
Our preference: long positions above 112.35 with targets at 113.00 & 113.35 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 112.35 look for further downside with 112.00 & 111.65 as targets.
 
Comment: the next resistances are at 113.00 and then at 113.35.
 
Supports and resistances:
113.60
113.35
113.00
112.65 Last
112.35
112.00
111.65
 
USD/CAD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3190.

 
 Pivot: 1.3190
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.3190 with targets at 1.3135 & 1.3115 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.3190 look for further upside with 1.3220 & 1.3240 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3240
1.3220
1.3190
1.3166 Last
1.3135
1.3115
1.3095
 
Gold spot Intraday: under pressure.

 
 Pivot: 1248.00
 
Our preference: short @ 1245.02 with targets @ 1241.00 & 1239.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1248.00 look for further upside with 1250.00 & 1253.00 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.
 
Supports and resistances:
1253.00
1250.00
1248.00
1245.02 Last
1241.00
1239.00
1237.00
 
Crude Oil(WTI) (Q18) Intraday: under pressure.

 
 Pivot: 70.75
 
Our preference: short positions below 70.75 with targets at 69.85 & 69.20 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 70.75 look for further upside with 71.20 & 71.80 as targets.
 
Comment: as long as the resistance at 70.75 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 69.85 remains high. The prices are trading below the 50-peroid moving average.
 
Supports and resistances:
71.80
71.20
70.75
70.38 Last
69.85
69.20
68.70

 



Our suggestion on daily chart - gold should wash out 1236 lows at least, and, who knows, may be proceed to 1210 target. The major reasons for that - sweety stops, that gold market just can't ingore. This is the habit:

Second - we have uncompleted AB=CD targets on 4H chart, which stand below 1236. This increases chances on breakout, or W&R at least.



Gold Technical summary

Closing price: (1241.80) 
 
Target price: 1240.50, 1238.80
 
Resistance: 1246.31-1248.80
 
Support: 1234.54-1227.70
 
Trend; Down / daily 
 
Trend reversal price: 1266.90 / daily close 
 
Comment: The minor trend for gold remains down with very recent action looking weak. Near term RSI average of 27 is approaching an oversold condition. The downside objectives for this formation range from 1240.50 to 1238.80, with a rally through 1266.90 needed to negate the pattern. Historical analysis of this minor swing pattern shows a definite bearish bias for today's action, with the odds of this market taking out yesterday's low in the next two trading sessions around 69 percent. 
 




AUG CRUDE OIL (70.61) 
 
Target price: 71.57, 69.58
 
resistance: 71.44-71.79
 
Support: 69.47-66.43
 
Trend: Down / daily close
 
Trend reversal price: 74.70 / daily close
 
Comment: Yesterday's action has changed the minor trend for Aug Crude Oil to down with very recent trade looking weak. We have currently traded below the first swing target for this market (71.57). The next objective is 69.58. A reversal and rally through 74.70 is needed to change this pattern. Historical analysis of this minor swing pattern shows a definite bearish bias for today's action, with the odds of this market taking out yesterday's low in the next two trading sessions around 69 percent. 
EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.1695.

 
 Pivot: 1.1695
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.1695 with targets at 1.1655 & 1.1625 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.1695 look for further upside with 1.1725 & 1.1760 as targets.
 
Comment: as long as 1.1695 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.1760
1.1725
1.1695
1.1676 Last
1.1655
1.1625
1.1590
 
GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3230.

 
 Pivot: 1.3230
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.3230 with targets at 1.3170 & 1.3150 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.3230 look for further upside with 1.3255 & 1.3285 as targets.
 
Comment: as long as 1.3230 is resistance, likely decline to 1.3170.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3285
1.3255
1.3230
1.3201 Last
1.3170
1.3150
1.3135
 
USD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 111.90.

 
 Pivot: 111.90
 
Our preference: long positions above 111.90 with targets at 112.40 & 112.60 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 111.90 look for further downside with 111.65 & 111.35 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
 
Supports and resistances:
112.80
112.60
112.40
112.19 Last
111.90
111.65
111.35
 
USD/CAD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.3170.

 
 Pivot: 1.3170
 
Our preference: long positions above 1.3170 with targets at 1.3220 & 1.3240 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1.3170 look for further downside with 1.3135 & 1.3095 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3260
1.3240
1.3220
1.3195 Last
1.3170
1.3135
1.3095
 
Gold spot Intraday: turning up.

 
 Pivot: 1242.00
 
Our preference: long positions above 1242.00 with targets at 1249.00 & 1251.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1242.00 look for further downside with 1239.00 & 1237.00 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
 
Supports and resistances:
1253.00
1251.00
1249.00
1245.08 Last
1242.00
1239.00
1237.00
 
Crude Oil(WTI) (Q18) Intraday: under pressure.

 
 Pivot: 71.20
 
Our preference: short positions below 71.20 with targets at 70.00 & 69.40 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 71.20 look for further upside with 72.10 & 72.70 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.
 
Supports and resistances:
72.70
72.10
71.20
70.82 Last
70.00
69.40
68.70 


Let's take a look what has changed on EUR since yesterday. On daily chart situation stands mostly the same - market is coiling around triangle resistance. In fact, within a week we should be ready for growing volatility and nervousness. Trump arrives to Brussels recently and he will meet Putin on Monday. So, there will be a lot of rumors around this. Second issues - tariffs war. Trump is not kidding and its already 200Bln of new 10% tarriffs against China on the table. European companies inentionally or occasionally but start thinking about this in relation to themselves...


On daily chart nothing has changed yet. EUR keeps chances on breakout still. We need to see clear bearish signs on intraday charts to talk on opposite, but we do not have it yet:




On 4H chart we still have our "222" Sell, while on 1H chart our yesterday setup with 3/8 retracement and H&S has worked perfectly. Now, as we do not have clarity yet on longer term perspective, all that we could do is just focus on some minor intraday patterns as we did yesterday with this H&S. For example, here we could get upside AB=CD retracement up from our 1.1688 support and this will become "222" Sell, or, may be some other pattern will be formed. If market somehow will hold above 1.1688 support - it will mean that butterfly could continue and EUR could move higher to 1.618 extension...












EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

 
 Pivot: 1.1750
 
Our preference: short positions below 1.1750 with targets at 1.1705 & 1.1690 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1.1750 look for further upside with 1.1770 & 1.1790 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.1790
1.1770
1.1750
1.1727 Last
1.1705
1.1690
1.1665


GBP/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.3230.

 
 Pivot: 1.3230
 
Our preference: long positions above 1.3230 with targets at 1.3300 & 1.3325 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1.3230 look for further downside with 1.3190 & 1.3150 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3360
1.3325
1.3300
1.3259 Last
1.3230
1.3190
1.3150

 
USD/JPY Intraday: further advance.

 
 Pivot: 110.90
 
Our preference: long positions above 110.90 with targets at 111.20 & 111.35 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 110.90 look for further downside with 110.80 & 110.65 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
 
Supports and resistances:
111.45
111.35
111.20
111.05 Last
110.90
110.80
110.65
 
USD/CAD Intraday: further advance.

 
 Pivot: 1.3110
 
Our preference: long positions above 1.3110 with targets at 1.3160 & 1.3175 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: below 1.3110 look for further downside with 1.3090 & 1.3065 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
 
Supports and resistances:
1.3200
1.3175
1.3160
1.3139 Last
1.3110
1.3090
1.3065
 
Gold spot Intraday: key resistance at 1253.50.

 
 Pivot: 1253.50
 
Our preference: short positions below 1253.50 with targets at 1249.50 & 1247.00 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 1253.50 look for further upside with 1257.00 & 1260.25 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
 
Supports and resistances:
1260.25
1257.00
1253.50
1252.14 Last
1249.50
1247.00
1245.00
 
Crude Oil(WTI) (Q18) Intraday: key resistance at 74.00.

 
 Pivot: 74.00
 
Our preference: short positions below 74.00 with targets at 73.50 & 73.20 in extension.
 
Alternative scenario: above 74.00 look for further upside with 74.40 & 74.80 as targets.
 
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
 
Supports and resistances:
74.80
74.40
74.00
73.85 Last
73.50
73.20
72.90
 
Страница 1 из 15

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